The Orlando Magic, an NBA team based in Orlando, Florida, has had a number of first-round picks throughout the years. These first-round picks are the players selected by the team in the first round of the NBA draft, which is held annually to replenish the teams' rosters with new talent. The Magic's first-round picks have varied in terms of their success and impact on the team. Some picks have gone on to become key contributors and All-Stars, while others have failed to make a significant impact and have been traded away or released. One of the Magic's most successful first-round picks was Shaquille O'Neal, who was selected first overall in the 1992 NBA draft. O'Neal quickly became one of the league's most dominant centers and played a crucial role in leading the Magic to the NBA Finals in 1995.

Dissecting a decade of Orlando Magic draft returns

This is no secret, but the NBA Draft is an inexact science at best. Each year we see big boards and scouting reports and mock selections, with the likelihood of each and every one of them actually playing out as planned about as dependable as a coin flip. Projecting and developing basketball talent is a cruel profession with no guarantees.

It’s the reason why even a selection at or close to the top of the board is far from a sure fire success. It’s a superior advantage, obviously, but still one that has to be leveraged in the correct manner. Very few drafts have a LeBron or Zion slam dunk waiting at the top, and the further you go down the selection order the greater the likelihood that the best laid plans go awry.

Unfortunately for the Magic, their recent lack of lottery luck — remember, the team hasn’t moved up in the draft order since they selected Penny! — has seen them constantly picking at slots lower than their season finish would have suggested. As such, the chances of the team hitting a home run have decreased as the variability of any given selection has accordingly increased.

What’s obvious to all is that in the years spanning the post-Dwight rebuild the Magic haven’t been able to find the star they so desperately crave. But does that necessarily mean the front office has done a poor job at the annual event? How does Orlando’s track record at the draft compare to the value they should have reasonably expected to extract? Is it something we can measure? Let’s find out.

The formula

Photo by Fernando Medina/NBAE via Getty Images

The idea of expected value relative to draft position is an ingrained part of some sports (such as the NFL), but it hasn’t totally caught on in the same way in the world of basketball. That being said, there has still been some interesting evaluative work done in this regard by a few different keen minds. Perhaps most famously, in writing for Basketball Reference back in 2009, Justin Kubatko used almost 30 years worth of data to determine an average measure of the win shares provided by a particular draft slot in the first four years of those players’ careers.

Despite being more than a decade old, Kubatko’s evaluation has held up pretty well as more data has been added to the evaluation pool. Washington University’s Tyler Brand took a shot at updating the numbers in 2016 for their sports analytics group, displaying his final figures as a measure of win shares above what would be provided by the average replacement level player. Interestingly, the two sets of data are pretty closely aligned in their conclusions once one accounts for the slight differences in approach, allowing for their meaningful application still today.

For the purposes of our evaluation of Orlando’s recent draft record we’re going to rely on Kubatko’s original model. The numbers he proposed still sit comfortably within the ranges of current perspectives, plus his figures require one less step because we’re not subtracting the win shares of a replacement level player (a figure which can be variable year to year itself, although it usually lands around the 1.2 mark). For interest’s sake, however, the totals for both Kubatko and Brand have been provided below.

Expected win shares per draft slot (first four years)

* WS = Win Shares (Kubatko)

* WSAR = Win Shares Above Replacement (Brand)

Let’s get started!

The Rob Hennigan Era

2013 - Victor Oladipo (2)

Photo by Ron Hoskins/NBAE via Getty Images

As the number two overall selection in 2013, Kubatko’s research suggests that the Magic could have expected to benefit from 22.1 win shares as a direct result of Oladipo’s contributions while on his rookie contract. However, even accounting for the fact that he was moved to the Thunder prior to the start of his fourth season, it’s pretty clear that the young guard didn’t rise to those predicted heights.

Oladipo churned out 9.7 win shares while in pinstripes, a figure that obviously put him well short of the pace required to hit 22.1. He added 4.0 more during that first season in Oklahoma City, and even if we generously assume he would have played a bigger role had he remained in Orlando, he still would have needed an MVP-level campaign in that fourth year to actually hit the total averaged by fellow second overall selections throughout the years.

2013 was a notoriously weak draft, although that fact shouldn’t let the Magic’s front office off the hook. There are currently 11 players from the class that have put up a greater number of win shares to this point of their career than Oladipo. The numbers are actually even more grim if one accounts for opportunity; damningly, he tumbles all the way to 24th if we instead look at win shares per-48 minutes, a ranking which further reinforces the fact that better selections were there to be had.

Despite kicking their rebuild off with a number two pick, the Magic only returned value closer to the output of the average eighth pick. In retrospect the foundation was flimsy from the outset.

2014 - Aaron Gordon (4) and Elfrid Payton (10)

Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

AG and EP constituted the Magic’s haul in 2014, a pair of lottery picks whose arrival resonates right now because of similarities with the team’s current circumstances (picks 5 and 8). From the 4 and 10 slot, the Magic should have been able to count on a combined 29.8 win shares from the pair across their first four years, the average return for those selected at their positions (17.8 and 12.0, respectively). Instead the return fizzled out at 24.7, a figure that again demonstrates a failure by Orlando to rise even to the distinction of average.

The main culprit was actually AG, who fell short of his average projection by 4.8 win shares. Making matters worse is the fact that he never actually improved upon the 5.2 win shares he generated in his sophomore season, a worry considering the franchise stuck with him for the better part of seven years. Gordon’s draft class is another that in retrospect is notoriously thin on talent at the top, but that doesn’t soften the blow for a Magic side that again failed to net even an average return.

2015 - Mario Hezonja (5)

Stephen M. Dowell/Orlando Sentinel/Tribune News Service via Getty Images

Super Mario was so obviously a super bust that the Magic actually declined his fourth year option, the start of a slippery slope that saw him out of the league after just five nondescript seasons. As the fifth overall selection, an average contribution would have been 16.4 win shares across the length of his rookie deal. Instead, Hezonja missed this mark by a whopping margin of 13.9. Hindsight reveals this selection as so egregious that there’s not really much to be gained by dwelling on it. Instead, let’s just let the nightmare die.

2016 - The Serge Ibaka trade (11 and Oladipo’s fourth year)

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This evaluation requires a little more in the way of calculation because of Orlando’s decision to trade out of the first round. On Draft night in 2016 the Magic shipped Oladipo and the 11th overall choice (which was used on Domantas Sabonis) to the Thunder for Serge Ibaka, a move intended to catapult the team into the thick of the playoff race. Instead it backfired disastrously, with the Congolese big man lasting less than one season in Central Florida and his exit signalling the start of yet another soft reset for Orlando.

As mentioned previously, Oladipo produced 4.0 win shares during his first season with the Thunder, so we’ll use that as a starting point for the value Orlando gave up. Remember, this is somewhat generous because we’ve already established that Oladipo was an underperformer, which therefore makes it easier for the Magic’s return to match or exceed that total. In addition, the 11th pick should be relied upon to accumulate some portion of the 11.4 they average over the life of their rookie deal. Sabonis himself put up 0.8 that year, but even as many as 1.5 would be a fair expectation of a rookie taken with that particular selection. In retrospect, the Magic shipped out 4.8 win shares that were ultimately underwhelming relative to expectations at the time, all in service of obtaining a player with All-Defensive pedigree and some All-star buzz. Good move, right?

To put it bluntly, no, because the Magic enjoyed just 3.8 win shares from Ibaka’s play while he was with the team. With it very clear that the arrangement hadn’t worked he was shipped to Toronto at the trade deadline, returning Terrence Ross who went on to add 0.6 more once he arrived. However, even that combined 4.4 win shares still leaves Orlando short of the figure that they gave up (4.8) and well short of the figure that would have represented an average return for the relative draft capital expended in this maneuvering (generously estimated in the range of 8.0 to 9.0). If the whiffed picks weren’t bad enough, they further exacerbated things by then netting a lesser return on the trade market.

The Weltman and Hammond Era

2017 - Jonathan Isaac (6) and Wes Iwundu (33)

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Four consecutive draft failures undoubtedly played a huge role in Hennigan’s eventual removal, with the 2017 Draft representing the first step in a new rebuild now led by the team of Jeff Weltman and John Hammond. The duo added Isaac and Iwundu in the first and second round, respectively, both of whom only played three seasons on their rookie deal for the team, albeit for very different reasons.

The average sixth overall selection returns 15.2 win shares in their first four years in the league, a number that Isaac has unfortunately fallen well short of. Across three injury-interrupted campaigns he has totaled just 6.7 win shares, although there is a moral victory to be found with this draft return. If you extrapolate the rate at which JI accumulates win shares over full 82 game programs he would easily be on pace to at least hit and perhaps even comfortably eclipse the average return. It’s a theoretical victory that has been undone by the cruel reality of significant injury.

As the 33rd overall choice the expectations for Iwundu were suitably tempered, but he was pretty clearly a value selection from the slot. On average an early second rounder would churn out 4.5 win shares across their first four years; Iwundu put up 4.4 in only three seasons in Orlando. He ultimately didn’t stick with the team for a variety of reasons, but he was undoubtedly a nice choice at that particular position.

2018 - Mo Bamba (6) and Melvin Frazier (35)

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If 2017 was in many ways a solid start for the Weltham duo, the following draft represents a halting of momentum. With one more season still to go on the rookie deals for this particular class there is still obviously some room for the narrative to change, but it seems pretty clear that the Magic will be taking a substantial L on the 2018 Draft.

The data suggests that an average return from Bamba and Frazier would be 19.3 win shares across the first four years. To this point the Magic have enjoyed just 6.0 from the duo. With Frazier already off the team and out of the league, the responsibility now rests solely with Bamba who, for context, would need to post a season in line with Giannis’ first MVP campaign just to nudge the tally ahead of the expected average. That’s right, even if the big man turns into the best player in the league the Magic’s 2018 draft haul will officially be only average. Good grief.

2019 - Chuma Okeke (16) and 2020 - Cole Anthony (15)

Photo by Fernando Medina/NBAE via Getty Images

At this stage there’s really not enough data to properly evaluate the progress of either Okeke or Anthony relative to expected win shares, but some good signs exist. Okeke is already on pace to at least meet the 9.0 expected of him in his first four seasons, while Anthony’s late season improvement to his win share rate suggested he might yet do the same. The road is still obviously a long and unknown one, but one can at this stage feel pretty good about the team’s chances of extracting reasonable value from these two most recent drafts.

The conclusion

The Magic were major players at the NBA Draft for six long seasons starting in 2013, a stretch during which they never once extracted even average value from the slots at which they picked. It’s a result of disastrous futility for any team, let alone one that was attempting to extricate itself from a prolonged rebuild. That they were doing so with a slew of top ten picks makes the failure all the more difficult to swallow.

When looked at closely the collective numbers are a veritable eyesore. An average return on their draft capital across those six years would have seen the Magic generate approximately 112 win shares; instead, they tallied just 58.4 from the players involved. In that stretch the team had a combined 179 wins, a number buoyed by the 42-40 team that reached the postseason on the back of a Vucevic All-Star campaign. To put this evaluation into context, of those 179 victories — which, remember, is still an ugly sub-30 win pace! — the Magic’s draft returns were responsible for just 32.6% of an already underwhelming total.

Importantly, we shouldn’t lose sight of the fact that we are only talking about the average output of these draft picks. Orlando haven’t just failed to reach the level of good, they’ve actually fallen disastrously short of mediocre.

If you’re looking to understand why the Magic are where they are now, rebuilding for the third time in the last decade, look no further than this series of botched drafts. Bad luck and bad timing both played their part, sure, but at some point the lead decision makers simply need to be better.

With two bites of the cherry this Thursday let’s hope that we eventually see a significantly sweeter outcome.

O'Neal quickly became one of the league's most dominant centers and played a crucial role in leading the Magic to the NBA Finals in 1995. Despite eventually leaving the team in free agency, O'Neal's impact on the Magic is still remembered and appreciated by fans. Another notable first-round pick for the Magic was Dwight Howard, who was selected first overall in the 2004 NBA draft.

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How draft protections impact the Orlando Magic’s three incoming first-round picks

At the 2021 NBA trade deadline, the Orlando Magic traded for three incoming first-round picks, but each of those picks carries important caveats that could prevent the Magic from receiving those picks on schedule or, in certain extreme situations, ever.

Narrow pathways exist that would allow the Chicago Bulls and Denver Nuggets to keep the first-round picks they sent the Magic in the Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon deals at the trade deadline. This is what was meant when those picks were said to be “lightly protected.”

The most extreme scenarios would be nightmare scenarios for Orlando, but those are unlikely to occur. This piece will spell out exactly what would have to happen for the Magic not to receive any one of those picks.

Bulls’ 2021 first-round pick

The Magic traded Vucevic and Al-Farouq Aminu to the Bulls for Wendell Carter Jr., Otto Porter Jr., the Bulls’ lightly protected 2021 first-round pick and the Bulls’ lightly protected 2023 first-round pick.

The most likely scenario will be that Orlando will get this pick in 2021, somewhere from No. 5 to No. 30.

This will get a bit complicated but remember this: If necessary, the Magic would get two opportunities to receive the initial first-round pick the Bulls included in the deal.

• This year, the pick is top-four protected. If Chicago enters the draft lottery and if Chicago wins the No. 1, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 4 pick, Chicago would keep its first-round pick this year for itself, and Orlando would not get the pick this year. If the pick falls from No. 5 to No. 30, the Magic would get the pick this year. The Bulls currently have the NBA’s eighth-worst record. If the current standings hold, they would have a 6.0 percent chance of winning the top pick, a 6.3 percent probability of receiving the second pick, a 6.7 percent likelihood of obtaining the third pick and 7.2 percent odds of getting the fourth pick. If the standings don’t change, the Bulls would have a 26.2 percent chance of winning a top-four pick for themselves — and preventing the Magic from receiving that pick this year.

• If the Bulls do not convey their 2021 first-round pick to the Magic in 2021, the Magic would have one more chance to receive that initial first-round pick — but in 2022. In 2022, the Bulls’ initial first-round pick would be even more lightly protected. It would be top-three protected. Chicago would keep the pick for itself if it enters the lottery and wins either the No. 1, No. 2 or No. 3 pick. If the pick falls from No. 4 to No. 30, the Magic would receive the pick in 2022.

• If the Bulls pick lands in the top four in 2021 and in the top three in 2022, the Magic would never receive the initial first-round pick. Instead, that first-round pick would automatically convert to a pair of second-round picks owned by the Bulls. The Magic would receive the Bulls’ second-round pick in 2024 and the Bulls’ second-round pick in 2025. This nightmare scenario for the Magic is very unlikely to occur, but it is worth remembering.

The NBA Draft Lottery could determine when, or if, the Bulls convey their 2021 or 2023 first-round picks to the Magic. (Patrick Gorski / USA Today)

Bulls’ 2023 first-round pick

The most likely scenario will be that Orlando will get this pick in 2023, somewhere from No. 5 to No. 30.

There are similar protections on this pick.

Once again, the Magic will receive two opportunities to receive the 2023 first-round pick, if necessary.

But this pick is more complicated because the NBA has a rule that prevents a team from trading away its first-round pick in two consecutive years. The outcome of the initial first-round pick will directly impact the timing of this pick.

If the Bulls convey their 2021 first-round pick to the Magic in 2021 or do not convey that initial first-round pick in 2021 and 2022:

• In 2023, Chicago’s first-round pick would be top-four protected. If the Bulls enter the draft lottery and win the No. 1, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 4 pick, the Bulls would keep their 2023 first-round pick for themselves. If the pick falls between No. 5 and No. 30, the Magic would receive the pick in 2023.

• If the Bulls do not convey their 2023 first-round pick to the Magic, the Magic would have one more chance to receive that first-round pick — but in 2024. In 2024, the Bulls’ first-round pick would be even more lightly protected. It would be top-three protected. Chicago would keep the pick for itself if it enters the lottery and wins either the No. 1, No. 2 or No. 3 pick. If the pick falls from No. 4 to No. 30, the Magic would receive the pick in 2024.

• If the Bulls pick in the top four in 2023 and in the top three in 2024, the Magic would never receive the latter first-round pick. Instead, that first-round pick would automatically convert to a pair of second-round picks owned by the Bulls. The Magic would receive the Bulls’ second-round pick in 2026 and the Bulls’ second-round pick in 2027. That would be a nightmare for the Magic.

But as I said before, there is another possible scenario: if the Bulls convey their 2021 first-round pick to the Magic in 2022. In that case, the Magic would still get two bites at the apple for the Bulls’ 2023 first-round pick, but those bites would begin in 2024. These are the specifics:

• In 2024, Chicago would keep its first-round pick that if it is the No. 1, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 4 pick. If the pick falls from No. 5 to No. 30, the Magic would receive the pick in 2024.

• If the Bulls are able to keep the pick in 2024 by getting a top-four pick, the Magic would have one more chance to receive the first-round pick — but in 2025. In 2025, Chicago would keep the first-round pick that if it is No. 1, No. 2 or No. 3. If the pick falls from No. 4 to No. 30, the Magic would receive the pick in 2025.

• If the Bulls do not convey their first-round pick in 2024 or 2025, the Magic would receive the Bulls’ second-round pick in 2026 and the Bulls’ second-round pick in 2027. That would be a nightmare for the Magic.

The Nuggets’ 2025 first-round pick

The most likely scenario is that Orlando will, if necessary, receive three opportunities to receive a top-five-protected first-round pick from Denver, beginning in 2025 and continuing through 2027.

But there are unlikely scenarios in which Orlando would receive only one or two opportunities to get the pick. The reason: The Nuggets have a prior trade commitment with the Oklahoma City Thunder that gives the Thunder three opportunities, if necessary, to receive a pick from No. 15 to No. 30, beginning in 2023 and running through 2025.

Once again, the NBA rule that prevents a team — in this case, Denver — from trading its first-round pick in two consecutive years could impact Orlando.

So these are the possibilities:

• If the Nuggets’ 2023 first-round pick falls from No. 15 to No. 30, that pick would go to the Thunder. In this scenario, beginning in 2025, the Magic would get three opportunities to receive one Nuggets first-round pick if it falls from No. 6 to No. 30. If the Magic don’t get the pick in 2025, they’d have two chances under the same protection in 2026 and 2027. If they don’t get the pick in 2025 or 2026, they would get one final chance under the same protection in 2027.

• If the Nuggets do not convey a No. 15-30 pick to the Thunder in 2023 but do so in 2024, the Magic would get two opportunities, if necessary, to receive the Nuggets’ first-round pick if it falls from No. 6 to No. 30, beginning in 2026. If the Magic don’t get the pick in 2026, the Magic would get one final chance in 2027.

• If the Nuggets do not convey a No. 15-30 pick to the Thunder in 2023 and 2024 and 2025, the Magic would receive Denver’s pick in 2025 if falls from No. 6 to No. 14; or in 2026, if it falls from No. 6 to No. 30; or in 2027, if it falls from No. 6 to No. 30.

• If the Nuggets do not convey a No. 15-30 pick to the Thunder in 2023 or 2024 but convey the pick to the Thunder in 2025, the Magic would only receive the pick if it falls from No. 6 to No. 30 in 2027.

• If the Magic do not receive the pick from the Nuggets in 2025 or 2026 or 2027, the Nuggets would have no further obligation to the Magic. That is Orlando’s nightmare scenario.

Aaron Gordon was the featured player in the trade between Orlando and Denver. (Jerome Miron / USA Today)

The Celtics’ second-round picks

Orlando traded Evan Fournier to Boston for two future second-round picks, a $17.1 million trade exception and Jeff Teague. Teague was later waived.

In 2025, the Magic will receive either the Celtics’ or Memphis Grizzlies’ second-round pick, whichever is less favorable to the Magic.

In 2027, the Magic will receive the Celtics’ own second-round pick.

Related reading

(Top photo of Magic president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman: Patrick Gorski / USA Today)

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Josh Robbins is a senior writer for The Athletic. He began covering the Washington Wizards in 2021 after spending more than a decade on the Orlando Magic beat for The Athletic and the Orlando Sentinel, where he worked for 18 years. His work has been honored by the Football Writers Association of America, the Green Eyeshade Awards and the Florida Society of News Editors. He served as president of the Professional Basketball Writers Association from 2014 to 2023. Josh is a native of the greater Washington, D.C., area. Follow Josh on Twitter @ JoshuaBRobbins

Orlando Magic still evaluating all options with No. 1 pick in NBA draft

ORLANDO, Fla. -- College basketball season ended almost three months ago, the NBA draft lottery was more than a month ago and the draft itself is later this week.

Seems like the process should be winding down.

Orlando Magic president Jeff Weltman sees it differently.

"I tell you, it's still early in the process," Weltman said Monday.

Translated: The Magic haven't decided yet what they'll do on Thursday night when the draft rolls around and they have the No. 1 pick. Other teams have called to gauge what the asking price would be if they want to trade for that selection, and the Magic have evaluated all the top candidates.

But Weltman sees no reason to decide anything before it's absolutely necessary, especially given the opportunity that Orlando has by holding this No. 1 pick.

Howard quickly established himself as one of the top centers in the league and played a key role in leading the Magic to the NBA Finals in 2009. Howard won three consecutive Defensive Player of the Year awards during his time with the Magic and remains one of the team's most iconic players. However, not all of the Magic's first-round picks have been as successful. For example, in the 2013 NBA draft, the team selected Victor Oladipo second overall, but he was eventually traded to the Indiana Pacers in a deal that brought Serge Ibaka to the Magic. Oladipo went on to become an All-Star and one of the league's top shooting guards, while Ibaka had a relatively short stint with the team before being traded to the Toronto Raptors. Overall, the Orlando Magic's first-round picks have had varying levels of success and impact on the team. While some picks have become franchise stars, others have failed to live up to expectations. However, the team continues to use the NBA draft to find new talent and build for the future..

Reviews for "Comparing the Orlando Magic's First Round Picks to Other NBA Teams"

1. John - 1/5 stars: I was completely disappointed with the Orlando Magic's 1st round picks this year. None of them showed any promise or potential to make an impact in the NBA. It felt like a wasted opportunity for the team to improve their roster. I would have expected better picks from a professional basketball organization.

2. Sarah - 2/5 stars: The Orlando Magic's 1st round picks seemed underwhelming and lacked the talent to make a significant difference on the team. It feels like they were selected without much thought or consideration for their potential contributions. I would have wanted to see more promising players being chosen to help rejuvenate the team.

3. Mike - 2/5 stars: The Orlando Magic's 1st round picks this year left a lot to be desired. They lacked the necessary skills and athleticism required to compete at the NBA level. It's disappointing to see the team consistently miss out on quality players who could genuinely contribute to their success. Hopefully, the front office can make better decisions in the future to bolster the team's performance.

4. Emily - 1/5 stars: The Orlando Magic's 1st round picks were a complete letdown. None of them showed any potential to develop into impactful players. It's frustrating to see the team waste valuable opportunities to improve their roster and compete at a higher level. The lack of satisfactory picks raises concerns about the team's ability to scout and identify talent.

The Risk vs. Reward of Orlando Magic First Round Draft Picks